Sir Keir Starmer is just moments away from a crunch showdown with MPs in the House of Commons.Having dodged a question on his future as Prime Minister on Friday, Sir Keir is now preparing to update MPs on what he knew about Lord Mandelson’s appointment as the UK’s Ambassador to the US. Lord Mandelson, known as the “Prince of Darkness” during his New Labour days, now risks bringing down Sir Keir’s Government altogether. A small gaggle of Labour MPs, the Tory Party and Liberal Democrats have all put pressure on the Prime Minister to resign. However, when asked whether he will resign, Sir Keir said: “That I wasn’t told that he’d failed security vetting when I was telling Parliament that due process had been followed is unforgivable.”So, what can MPs actually do to topple the Prime Minister?
Confidence vote
Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has confirmed his MPs will join the Tories in a confidence vote against the Prime Minister.Confidence votes have resulted in a change of leader before, including in 1979 when a razor-thin defeat for Jim Callaghan triggered a general election that subsequently saw Margaret Thatcher win a landslide victory. However, Sir Keir’s stonking 156-seat majority makes it almost impossible for MPs to topple the Prime Minister. Opposition MPs would need to win over 79 Labour MPs to pass the motion.
Labour leadership campaign
A Labour challenger could emerge to take on Sir Keir after the 2026 Local Elections.However, the Prime Minister appears somewhat protected, with the Labour Party rulebook requiring any challenger to obtain the backing of 80 MPs.GB News has covered how Health Secretary Wes Streeting and ex-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner have been earmarked as potential challengers to Sir Keir. Despite the two ambitious Labour MPs doing a fair amount of posturing, the appetite for a successor to come forward was dealt a blow following a warm reaction to Sir Keir’s response to events in Iran.
Cabinet cabal
While Boris Johnson’s departure from No10 is often overshadowed by the partygate scandal, the ex-Prime Minister was only forced out as a result of mass Cabinet resignations following revelations about Chris Pincher.Cabinet bigwigs Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid fired the starting gun on the premiership-ending revolt.An unprecedented 62 resignations in early July 2022 prompted Mr Johnson to eventually tender his resignation. However, for the moment at least, Sir Keir’s Cabinet colleagues appear far more supportive of the Prime Minister.
Privileges committee
The Liberal Democrats have demanded that the privileges committee investigates whether Sir Keir committed contempt of Parliament after he told MPs the “full due process” had been followed ahead of Lord Mandelson’s appointment. Boris Johnson faced a similar probe over his comments to the House of Commons on partygate.The committee was responsible for Mr Johnson’s resignation as the MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip in June 2023 following its investigation.However, Mr Johnson would have been at risk of a 90 day suspension if he had not resigned, bringing the risk of a by-election.
Standards investigation
Sir Keir could face an investigation by Parliament’s standards watchdog over a possible breach of the rules linked to the Lord Mandelson scandal.All complaints of this kind are considered by the parliamentary standards commissioner, Daniel Greenberg, who is responsible for deciding whether any rules may have been broken.In more serious cases, Mr Greenberg can refer matters to the Commons standards committee, which has the power to recommend tougher sanctions.At the most severe end, this could include suspension from the Commons—potentially forcing Sir Keir to step down.
Ethics investigation
The final way MPs could look to oust Sir Keir is potentially through an investigation by the Prime Minister’s independent ethics adviser, Sir Laurie Magnus. Any MP can urge Sir Laurie to open a probe into a potential breach of the ministerial code. Previous investigations by Sir Laurie have prompted the resignations of Angela Rayner and Tulip Siddiq. Sir Keir has been accused of misleading MPs over Lord Mandelson’s vetting failure, marking a potential breach of the ministerial code.