
More than half of Muslims would vote for pro-Gaza independents to stop Labour from winning, a new poll has revealed.Labour faces a dramatic collapse in support among British Muslim voters ahead of this week’s local elections, with new Policy Exchange research revealing the party’s backing has plummeted from a historic 80 per cent to just 33 per cent.The polling, conducted by JL Partners, shows six in 10 Muslim voters in key battleground councils are prepared to back Gaza-focused independent candidates as a means of defeating Labour.Nearly half would consider supporting the Greens for the same purpose.The findings suggest a fundamental realignment of Muslim political allegiances, with voters increasingly drawn to independent candidates who prioritise concerns about the global Muslim community alongside local issues.The Israel-Gaza conflict appears to be a significant driver of this shift away from Labour.The survey covered more than 1,000 British Muslims living in areas with significant Muslim populations where elections are being held, spanning Greater London, the West Midlands, Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire, and parts of Lancashire, South Yorkshire and Merseyside.A separate nationally representative sample of over 1,000 UK adults was also polled for comparison.Six in 10 Muslim voters in key battleground councils are prepared to back Gaza-focused independent candidates | PAAmong Muslim respondents, 49 per cent indicated they would consider voting Green to prevent a Labour victory, while 60 per cent said they would consider backing independent candidates.The Greens currently enjoy 27 per cent support among Muslim voters, which sits 10 points above the party’s national polling average and 17 points higher than their support among the general population in this survey.Fourteen per cent of Muslim voters said they would back a Muslim independent candidate in a general election.The Israel-Gaza conflict emerges as a defining issue separating Muslim voters from the broader electorate.Fourteen per cent of Muslim voters said they would back a Muslim independent candidate in a general election | UK PARLIAMENTA quarter of British Muslims polled said the conflict would determine their vote, compared with just five per cent of the general population – making it five times more influential among Muslim voters.On other matters, priorities align more closely. Cost of living ranks as the dominant concern across both groups, with the economy, education and welfare also featuring similarly in voter priorities.However, religious identity plays a markedly different role. Sixty-three per cent of Muslim respondents ranked their faith as their most important identity, while only 12 per cent prioritised their British identity.Among the general population, national identity topped the list at 43 per cent.Labour faces a dramatic collapse in support among British Muslim voters ahead of this week’s local elections, with support plummeting from a historic 80 per cent to just 33 per cent | PAThe polling uncovered troubling attitudes on several fronts. One quarter of Muslim respondents expressed a favourable view of Hamas, while 28 per cent held an unfavourable opinion.Views on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were similarly divided, with 23 per cent favourable compared to 20 per cent unfavourable.Nearly a quarter of Muslims surveyed believed violence could be justified in response to burning the Koran or depicting the Prophet Muhammad, more than double the 10 per cent figure among the general public.Antisemitic attitudes were notably more prevalent among Muslim respondents.Twenty-one per cent admitted unfavourable feelings towards Jews, compared with 11 per cent nationally.Some 45 per cent believed Jews wield excessive influence over the media, while 39 per cent said the same about Parliament – more than twice the national figures.The research also highlighted concerns about electoral integrity. Fourteen per cent of Muslim voters reported having a postal vote collected by a political candidate or campaigner – a practice now prohibited under the 2022 Elections Act and historically linked to electoral fraud. This figure was nearly double that of the general population.Dr Rakib Ehsan, lead author of the Policy Exchange report “Understanding Islamopopulism: Views of Concern”, said: “The data shows that the Labour Party is on course to be further punished by British Muslims in the English local elections, with a likely surge of Muslim independent candidates being elected in cities such as Birmingham and towns like Blackburn, along with a number of London boroughs including Newham.”He added: “The findings show that the UK is far from being a stable multi-faith democracy.”