Labour would lose 163 seats- 40 per cent of its representation in Westminster- in a catastrophic wipeout, a sophisticated poll-aggregating map has revealed. The projection would see Labour’s majority decimated with Starmer’s party falling 78 seats short of the magic 321 required to rule without entering a coalition.It would mean the socialist party would have to enter a power sharing alliance with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP who are projected to win 71 and 42 seats (down one and up 33) respectively. The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling and weights it for recency and historic pollster accuracy, shows the Conservatives winning 137 seats, up 16.Most Labour losses would be inflicted by a rampant Reform UK who would gain 114 seats (up 109) according to the model. The two right wing parties would win 251 seats between them, well short of the required number to form a coalition (a highly unlikely preposition anyway).Labour’s projected lossesGBNThe map reveals there would be several high-profile Labour casualties if an election was held tomorrow.Cabinet ministers Angela Rayner (Deputy PM), Wes Streeting (Health Secretary), John Healey (Defence Secretary), Yvette Cooper (Home Secretary) and Bridget Phillipson (Education Secretary) are all projected to be unseated. Streeting’s Ilford North seat would be snatched by an independent candidate, while Healey’s Rawmarsh and Conisbrough would go to Reform. Reform would also take Cooper’s Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley constituency, Rayner’s Ashton-under-Lyme and Phillipson’s Houghton and Sunderland South patch. Badenoch’s Conservatives would also be caught in the Reform tidal wave. Big beasts Richard Holden (Shadow Paymaster General), Victoria Atkins (Shadow Defra Secretary) and James Cleverly (former Home Secretary) would all be usurped by Reform.
Big beasts currently projected to lose their seats
Big beasts currently projected to lose their seatsHoCThe model comes as a fresh blow to an increasingly under pressure Starmer whose unpopularity is plumbing new depths every week.His party’s decisions to remove the winter fuel payment for millions of pensioners, slap farmers with death duties, surrender the Chagos Islands and raise taxes by £40billion have all been met with fury. Just this week, Starmer has been dogged by controversy over his decision to meet a voice coach in person in December 2020 when the nation was in severe Covid lockdown. Add to that the Chagos Island ‘fiasco’, reported to be costing £18billion to British taxpayers, and the news council elections will be cancelled in nine authorities this May, despite all nine raising tax by hundreds of pounds. The slew of bad headlines for Starmer has been broadly reflected in recent UK wide polling. On Monday, highly respected pollsters YouGov put Reform at 25 per cent (+2) with Labour second 24 per cent (-3) and the Conservatives third with 21 per cent (-1).LATEST FROM MEMBERSHIP:It was the first national poll by an organisation other than FindOutNow that gave Reform a national lead.FindOutNow has repeatedly given Reform higher poll ratings than any other polling company. It gave Reform a four-point lead with Farage’s party polling 27 per cent compared to Labour’s 23 per cent last week.Reacting, a Reform UK spokesman said: “It’s no surprise we’re polling six points ahead of the Tories. “The British people have been let down by the empty promises and failures of both Labour and the Conservatives. Fourteen years of Conservative rule have left the country poorer, worsened illegal immigration, and deepened divisions. “Britons are tired of a two-party system where party politics and self-interest come before the needs of the people. Reform UK is breaking this cycle, standing for small businesses, farming families, lower taxes, prosperity, and British freedoms. “Our remarkable transformation into a professional, organised, and election-winning force reflects this mission. With over 185,000 members, polling above 27% nationally, and with significant by-election successes, Reform UK is the party of real change. “Our growing support is a clear reminder: the British people demand a government that works for them, not against them.”LABOUR MPS PROJECTED TO LOSE SEATSENGLANDNoah Law / St Austell and Newquay / RFM GAIN Anna Gelderd / South East Cornwall / RFM GAIN Fred Thomas / Plymouth Moor View / RFM GAIN Lloyd Hatton / South Dorset / CON GAIN Neil Duncan-Jordan / Poole / CON GAIN Sadik Al-Hassan / North Somerset / CON GAIN Matt Bishop / Forest of Dean / CON GAIN Yuan Yang / Earley and Woodley / CON GAIN Olivia Bailey / Reading West and Mid Berkshire / CON GAIN Peter Swallow / Bracknell / CON GAIN Amanda Martin / Portsmouth North / CON GAIN Tony Vaughan / Folkestone and Hythe / RFM GAIN Mike Tapp / Dover and Deal / RFM GAIN Polly Billington / East Thanet / RFM GAIN Sojan Joseph / Ashford / RFM GAIN Tristan Osborne / Chatham and Aylesford / RFM GAIN Lauren Edwards / Rochester and Strood / RFM GAIN Naushabah Khan / Gillingham and Rainham / RFM GAIN Kevin McKenna / Sittingbourne and Sheppey / RFM GAIN Jim Dickson / Dartford / RFM GAIN Lauren Sullivan / Gravesham / RFM GAIN David Burton-Sampson / Southend West and Leigh / CON GAIN Jen Craft / Thurrock / RFM GAIN Daniel Francis / Bexleyheath and Crayford / RFM GAIN Margaret Mullane / Dagenham and Rainham / RFM GAIN Chris Vince / Harlow / RFM GAIN Wes Streeting / Ilford North / MIN GAIN Peter Prinsley / Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket / CON GAIN Jenny Riddell-Carpenter / Suffolk Coastal / CON GAIN Jess Asato / Lowestoft / RFM GAIN Ben Goldsborough / South Norfolk / CON GAIN Terry Jermy / South West Norfolk / RFM GAIN Rushanara Ali / Bethnal Green and Stepney / MIN GAIN Rachel Blake / Cities of London and Westminster / CON GAIN Joe Powell / Kensington and Bayswater / CON GAIN Ben Coleman / Chelsea and Fulham / CON GAIN Callum Anderson / Buckingham and Bletchley / CON GAIN Danny Beales / Uxbridge and South Ruislip / CON GAIN Laura Kyrke-Smith / Aylesbury / CON GAIN Chris Bloore / Redditch / CON GAIN Cat Eccles / Stourbridge / RFM GAIN Alex Ballinger / Halesowen / RFM GAIN Laurence Turner / Birmingham Northfield / RFM GAIN Alex Mayer / Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard / CON GAIN David Pinto-Duschinsky / Hendon / CON GAIN Sarah Sackman / Finchley and Golders Green / CON GAIN Dan Tomlinson / Chipping Barnet / CON GAIN Andrew Pakes / Peterborough / CON GAIN Sam Carling / North West Cambridgeshire / CON GAIN Chris Hinchliff / North East Hertfordshire / CON GAIN Shaun Davies / Telford / RFM GAIN Sonia Kumar / Dudley / RFM GAIN Sureena Brackenridge / Wolverhampton North East / RFM GAIN Antonia Bance / Tipton and Wednesbury / RFM GAIN Jess Phillips / Birmingham Yardley / WPB GAIN Jodie Gosling / Nuneaton / RFM GAIN Gen Kitchen / Wellingborough and Rushden / RFM GAIN Rachel Taylor / North Warwickshire and Bedworth / RFM GAIN Liam Byrne / Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North / RFM GAIN Valerie Vaz / Walsall and Bloxwich / RFM GAIN Josh Newbury / Cannock Chase / RFM GAIN Dave Robertson / Lichfield / CON GAIN Sarah Edwards / Tamworth / RFM GAIN Jacob Collier / Burton and Uttoxeter / RFM GAIN Paulette Hamilton / Birmingham Erdington / RFM GAIN Amanda Hack / North West Leicestershire / CON GAIN Allison Gardner / Stoke-on-Trent South / RFM GAIN Adam Jogee / Newcastle-under-Lyme / RFM GAIN Samantha Niblett / South Derbyshire / RFM GAIN Baggy Shanker / Derby South / RFM GAIN Adam Thompson / Erewash / RFM GAIN Natalie Fleet / Bolsover / RFM GAIN Jonathan Davies / Mid Derbyshire / CON GAIN Gareth Snell / Stoke-on-Trent Central / RFM GAIN David Williams / Stoke-on-Trent North / RFM GAIN John Whitby / Derbyshire Dales / CON GAIN Linsey Farnsworth / Amber Valley / RFM GAIN Louise Jones / North East Derbyshire / CON GAIN Melanie Onn / Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes / RFM GAIN Nicholas Dakin / Scunthorpe / RFM GAIN Michelle Welsh / Sherwood Forest / RFM GAIN Steve Yemm / Mansfield / RFM GAIN Jo White / Bassetlaw / RFM GAIN Jake Richards / Rother Valley / CON GAIN Sarah Champion / Rotherham / RFM GAIN John Healey / Rawmarsh and Conisbrough / RFM GAIN Lee Pitcher / Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme / RFM GAIN Stephanie Peacock / Barnsley South / RFM GAIN Jon Trickett / Normanton and Hemsworth / RFM GAIN Dan Jarvis / Barnsley North / RFM GAIN Jade Botterill / Ossett and Denby Dale / RFM GAIN Yvette Cooper / Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley / RFM GAIN Karl Turner / Kingston upon Hull East / RFM GAIN Kim Leadbeater / Spen Valley / RFM GAIN Judith Cummins / Bradford South / RFM GAIN Kate Dearden / Halifax / RFM GAIN Josh Simons / Makerfield / RFM GAIN Jo Platt / Leigh and Atherton / RFM GAIN Yasmin Qureshi / Bolton South and Walkden / RFM GAIN Angela Rayner / Ashton-under-Lyne / RFM GAIN Naz Shah / Bradford West / MIN GAIN Alison Hume / Scarborough and Whitby / RFM GAIN Luke Myer / Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland / CON GAIN Kirith Entwistle / Bolton North East / RFM GAIN Chris Webb / Blackpool South / RFM GAIN Lorraine Beavers / Blackpool North and Fleetwood / RFM GAIN Andy MacNae / Rossendale and Darwen / RFM GAIN Sarah Smith / Hyndburn / RFM GAIN Elsie Blundell / Heywood and Middleton North / RFM GAIN Jim McMahon / Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton / RFM GAIN Debbie Abrahams / Oldham East and Saddleworth / RFM GAIN Paul Waugh / Rochdale / WPB GAIN Oliver Ryan / Burnley / RFM GAIN Luke Akehurst / North Durham / RFM GAIN Sam Rushworth / Bishop Auckland / RFM GAIN Lola McEvoy / Darlington / CON GAIN Jonathan Hinder / Pendle and Clitheroe / CON GAIN Maya Ellis / Ribble Valley / CON GAIN Chris McDonald / Stockton North / RFM GAIN Jonathan Brash / Hartlepool / RFM GAIN Grahame Morris / Easington / RFM GAIN Lewis Atkinson / Sunderland Central / RFM GAIN Bridget Phillipson / Houghton and Sunderland South / RFM GAIN Sharon Hodgson / Washington and Gateshead South / RFM GAIN Emma Lewell-Buck / South Shields / RFM GAIN Ian Lavery / Blyth and Ashington / RFM GAIN Julie Minns / Carlisle / RFM GAIN SCOTLANDElaine Stewart / Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock / SNP GAIN Lillian Jones / Kilmarnock and Loudoun / SNP GAIN Alan Gemmell / Central Ayrshire / SNP GAIN Gregor Poynton / Livingston / SNP GAIN Joani Reid / East Kilbride and Strathaven / SNP GAIN Pamela Nash / Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke / SNP GAIN Blair McDougall / East Renfrewshire / SNP GAIN Kirsty McNeill / Midlothian / SNP GAIN Scott Arthur / Edinburgh South West / SNP GAIN Chris Murray / Edinburgh East and Musselburgh / SNP GAIN Tracy Gilbert / Edinburgh North and Leith / SNP GAIN Johanna Baxter / Paisley and Renfrewshire South / SNP GAIN Irene Campbell / North Ayrshire and Arran / SNP GAIN Gordon McKee / Glasgow South / SNP GAIN Alison Taylor / Paisley and Renfrewshire North / SNP GAIN Martin McCluskey / Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West / SNP GAIN Frank McNally / Coatbridge and Bellshill / SNP GAIN Zubir Ahmed / Glasgow South West / SNP GAIN Patricia Ferguson / Glasgow West / SNP GAIN Graeme Downie / Dunfermline and Dollar / SNP GAIN John Grady / Glasgow East / SNP GAIN Martin Rhodes / Glasgow North / SNP GAIN Douglas McAllister / West Dunbartonshire / SNP GAIN Tracy Gilbert / Edinburgh North and Leith / SNP GAIN Melanie Ward / Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy / SNP GAIN Euan Stainbank / Falkirk / SNP GAIN Maureen Burke / Glasgow North East / SNP GAIN Richard Baker / Glenrothes and Mid Fife / SNP GAIN Brian Leishman / Alloa and Grangemouth / SNP GAIN Katrina Murray / Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch / SNP GAIN Chris Kane / Stirling and Strathallan / SNP GAIN WALESNia Griffith / Llanelli / RFM GAIN Henry Tufnell / Mid and South Pembrokeshire / CON GAIN Steve Witherden / Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr / RFM GAIN Gill German / Clwyd North / CON GAIN