To construct his model, Rockwood drew upon earlier work by David Robert Grimes, who had examined whether large-scale conspiracies — including claims that the Moon landings were staged — could plausibly remain concealed. Grimes had demonstrated the chance of disclosure rises with both the number of conspirators and the duration of the deception.Rockwood applied this framework to smaller groups reporting miraculous events. He assigned each witness a one per cent yearly probability of revealing a fabrication, although he acknowledged this figure represented an assumption rather than a scientifically measured rate.The model also incorporated mortality rates derived from ancient Roman demographic data, using estimates reviewed in Robert McIver’s book on memory and the Synoptic Gospels. These projections indicated that roughly three-quarters of witnesses would survive for a decade, whilst only about one-third would remain alive after 30 years.Rockwood constructed two scenarios for his calculations, each based on different interpretations of biblical texts. His smaller group comprised 16 individuals: the 11 apostles who remained following Judas’ death, Paul, James (identified as Jesus’ brother), and three women linked to reports of the empty tomb, among them Mary Magdalene.