Labour will miss its flagship 1.5 million homes target by more than half a million as soaring costs and new Net Zero and building rules cripple housebuilding, a leading construction economist has warned.A new forecast unveiled today predicts just 940,000 new homes will be built in England over the five-year period – 560,000 short of the Government’s ambition, and fewer than the previous two five-year periods.Despite Labour’s promise to “get Britain building”, Professor Noble Francis, economics director at the Construction Products Association (CPA) and professor of construction economics at University College London, warned the Government “cannot have it both ways” by demanding more homes while continually piling extra costs onto builders.He said: “The Government will not get its 1.5 million homes over the next five years.”Net additions have already fallen for three consecutive years and the CPA forecasts another nine per cent fall in 2026/27.Around 1.1 million homes were added in the previous five years, according to Prof Francis, with roughly the same number in the five years before that.His forecast would therefore mean around 160,000 fewer homes than in the last five-year period, despite housebuilding being at the heart of Labour’s growth plans.Prof Francis said: “Adding more and more cost will make it more and more difficult. 1.5 million homes – it just will not happen.”The warning comes after ministers announced almost £10billion for councils, housing associations and other providers in the first major allocation from a separate £39billion programme to boost social and affordable housebuilding.But Prof Francis argues the most fundamental problem facing the wider housing market is not planning permission – it is whether builders can afford to build once they have it, especially in low-priced parts of the country.Labour could miss its flagship 1.5 million homes target by more than half a million | UK GOVERNMENTIndustry analysis estimates the cost of delivering a typical low-rise new home has risen by around £76,000 in just five years.Around £37,000 of that is due to higher labour and material costs.The remainder includes a growing collection of taxes and Government requirements covering Net Zero, the environment and building safety.These include: Greener homes – £10,200: tougher energy and low-carbon standards;Tougher building rules – £7,770: including new rules on energy efficiency, ventilation and overheating;River pollution – up to £7,000: in affected areas, builders must pay to offset pollution from new homes;Protecting wildlife – £5,700: developers must compensate for nature and habitats affected by building;Building safety – around £2,320: a new levy this autumn to help pay for fixing unsafe buildings.Builders also face higher employment taxes and wages, waste charges, affordable housing contributions and the cost of planning and safety delays.And more rules are coming: tougher energy and carbon standards for new homes take effect next March.Not every cost applies to every property and economies of scale can reduce some bills.Industry analysis estimates the cost of delivering a typical low-rise new home has risen by around £76,000 in just five years | GETTYBut overall, the Home Builders Federation estimates a typical low-rise home now costs £76,000 more to deliver than five years ago, although £37,000 of that is higher labour and material costs rather than Government rules.For high-rise homes, the increase is estimated at £98,000.Prof Francis says it is the sheer number of different demands which is damaging development.He said: “The costs are just increasing and increasing. It is the cumulative impact of all of them together that is destroying the viability of housebuilding.”He stressed he was not arguing that individual safety, environmental or Net Zero measures should simply be scrapped.Instead, he says different parts of Whitehall are imposing requirements for different purposes without properly considering their combined impact on whether homes actually get built.He said: “The Government needs to look at all the costs and decide what is absolutely critical because all of these costs together stop more homes being built and we urgently need a cross-party departmental body to look at these costs.”He added: “If the priority is housebuilding over extra cost, you cannot have it both ways.”High industrial energy prices are adding another squeeze by driving up the cost of producing building materials.The CPA says energy-intensive construction products, products using oil and imports have recently seen double-digit percentage price increases.It is calling for a temporary reduction in Government taxation on industrial energy prices, warning measures due from April 2027 come too late for manufacturers being hit by high costs now.Prof Francis said: “It will be difficult to justify building new homes when the costs have increased so much.”A Government spokesman said: “We’re building the homes this country needs by investing £39 billion in council, social and affordable housing and tackling planning blockages.“Thanks to our reforms housing starts are up 15 per cent on last year, and housebuilding will ramp up in the later years of this Parliament as more measures begin to bear fruit.”